The permanent disruption

This evening I depart from the maelstrom which is Maryland politics to bring you: reality. It’s the sort of reality that smacks you upside the head like a 2×4, except that there’s not a whole lot of demand for those right now – in case you haven’t noticed, there hasn’t been a whole lot of building going on over the last half-dozen years or so.

That’s a reason this post by Lee Dodson at The Brenner Brief caught my eye, as it asks a vital question: can the construction business survive? And when the opening line is…

The construction business didn’t just collapse, it disappeared.

…there was nothing I could do but sadly agree.

It’s been nearly nine years, but the reason I moved to Maryland in the first place was to take a job at a growing local architectural firm. For 22 years I worked in that business, first as a draftsman with a firm which literally did all its drawings with ink on mylar (anyone remember that?), then moving on to learning AutoCAD beginning with version 11, then taking my architectural exam – for which I grandfathered in because I only had a four year degree but enough work experience to qualify – and finally moving up to project management for small projects and eventual LEED certification a year before I was furloughed. In total, I worked for six different firms, not counting a little moonlighting I did now and then for a home builder.

To make a long story short, the demise of the construction industry locally put me (and, over a period of about 18 months, 16 others, give or take one or two who worked for my firm at various times while I was employed there) out of a job. Most found work in other places, but I decided to stay here and try something different because I like the area and didn’t wish to move yet again. A firm which had nearly 20 employees at its peak is now down to just a couple. Obviously I can’t speak for other firms, and there’s perhaps a few which have opened up during my long interregnum from the business, but I believe I would be safe in saying that, if you added up all those positions held at local architectural, engineering, and design firms seven years ago, less than half remain. And the reason is simple; not much is being built and what is getting done tends to be awarded to firms across the bridge.

So I have had the humbling experience of being downsized as a middle-aged guy out of a profession where I toiled for most of my adult life. But it’s even worse for long-term prospects, as Dodson notes:

The extinction of an entire class of tradespeople is the most dangerous situation. But those in the business who can bring younger people along will play a vital part in the recovery and restore a once vibrant building economy only if there is a will to liberate that class to thrive.

If you don’t do something for a long while, you lose your innate knowledge of the craft. Those who were expert tradesmen but lost their jobs wouldn’t be quite the experts if and when they were rehired. While someone like me wouldn’t forget completely how to do AutoCAD or know how to interpret the building code so a set of drawings could be sent out for permit, the industry has changed enough in a half-decade to present a steep learning curve once the industry recovers.

Unfortunately, the construction industry also suffers from a couple other factors which will affect its long-term local viability. The massive influx of foreign laborers, many of whom are here illegally, is driving wages down and placing craftsmanship in peril for those jobs being built.

Perhaps more ominous, though, is the additional red tape being placed on the construction industry on a number of fronts, but most particularly in the areas of “green” design and compliance with overly restrictive environmental and zoning codes. It’s difficult enough to establish this area as a market with its below average income, but when developers have to jump through a multitude of hoops to try and make their enterprise a profitable one, they may be inclined to try their luck somewhere else. I’m convinced that a large-scale development like Ocean Pines, which was built over 40 years ago, wouldn’t be possible today because the environmentalists would fight it tooth and nail in court or lobby to have the zoning codes written in such a way to prevent it.

It may be another decade before the building industry catches up to the over-saturation of units built in the last ten years or so, as the housing market collapsed here just as it did in many other resort areas. Those who figured on this area to be their second home suddenly had to worry about keeping the roof of their first house over their heads, and many couldn’t. Couple that with the continuing War on Rural Maryland perpetrated by those who think they know better in Annapolis and it’s clear that we may not have yet reached the bottom. Hopefully that’s not the case, but as seen from my perspective the jobs are nowhere to be found in this locality.

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