16 Republicans

This is something we should be aware of, although chances are it wouldn’t happen that way.

A post by Ned Ryun in RedState points out that just sixteen Republicans could be the difference between having milquetoast John Boehner as Speaker of the House or enacting a changing of the guard. For my part, I believe we need someone who will tell Barack Obama to pound sand until he comes up with realistic and reasonable bipartisan solutions on addressing the expiration of the Bush tax cuts and automatic spending cuts installed the last time we all kicked the can down the road. That someone is not John Boehner.

And before loyal Republicans freak out at the possibility of giving the Speaker’s gavel back to Nancy Pelosi, Ryun points out that House rules require a majority of members select a Speaker, not a plurality. The only way we would see Pelosi back in the chair is if sixteen of the most moderate Republicans crossed the aisle and guaranteed themselves a primary challenge in 2014.

Many conservatives are fed up with Boehner anyway, but the straw which broke the camel’s back may have been stripping some of the more strident House members of their former committee assignments.

Obviously we don’t have a say in what goes on in the House, but those of us in the First Congressional District elected someone who does. Since Andy Harris has said that he doesn’t believe in new taxes, why should he vote for a Speaker who’s willing to negotiate away the one key piece of leverage we have in these budget talks? I hope he doesn’t.

There are other interesting possibilities at work here, though. Let’s say the conservative Republicans succeed in getting enough votes committed to withholding support from Boehner that he couldn’t be re-elected Speaker with just GOP votes. Would Democrats cross over, knowing how he seems to loathe the most conservative in the Republican caucus as much as they do, and provide the votes to re-elect him Speaker? Stranger things have happened, but we would at least know where we stood.

Just because Barack Obama barely won re-election doesn’t mean all of America embraced his economic policies – more than likely it was a reaction to the demagoguery of his opponent and the lack of excitement he brought to the race from the same conservative quarters now questioning whether Boehner deserves another term.

Arguably that same group on a state level lost its confidence in party leadership as well, given that roughly 2/5 of the bodies voting last Saturday – 104 of 247 – voted in favor of the no-confidence resolution against Reince Priebus. Counties on the Eastern Shore, though, split almost evenly, with 34 for and 36 against. And if you add the clear majority from among the Central Committee voters in Baltimore, Carroll, and Harford counties calling for Reince’s head – remember, those are part of Andy’s district now – you can understand that the Harris constituency might be a little perturbed at party leadership.

Hopefully Harris bears that in mind when leadership roles are picked early next year.

The understanding of ‘trickle down’

Well, I guess this old Senate candidate won’t fade away; then again despite celebrating a birthday yesterday Dan Bongino really isn’t that old. He showed once again his economic chops in a statement yesterday:

Maryland is preparing to take the gold medal in a competition only a fool would want to win. If we go over the “Fiscal Cliff”, my home state of Maryland will see an incredible $7,000 tax hike for a family making just the median income, according to an analysis by theĀ Tax Foundation. This dramatic tax hike ranks as the highest amongst the 50 states and would do untold damage to the state’s already fragile economic environment.

Noticeably absent from the 2012 campaign conversation was the real economic impact of these dramatic tax hikes on families living in high cost-of-living states such as Maryland. Disposable income simply does not buy in Maryland what it purchases in lower cost-of-living states and when combined with our total tax burden, it is creating an unsustainable economic environment. Nearly 40,000 Marylanders have fled the state since 2007 and the exodus stands to worsen without a change in course.

This tax hike on the “Rich” political pitch is a red herring designed to further a political agenda, not an economic one. It is time for the President to lead, the campaign is over and the country needs a President, not a politician.

Good luck with that last sentence. But there are a couple points which Dan misses here.

It’s assumed that Maryland is a among the wealthiest of states, and as an average that’s probably true because so much of the population lives along the Beltway and, quite frankly, living off the federal government is most lucrative when you’re an employee or employed by someone who depends on the same sort of skilled labor and has to compete salary-wise. But come out here to the “shithouse,” as the late Governor William Donald Schaefer once referred to the Eastern Shore, and you’ll find that the tax increases may not exact the same amount per capita but will make it even harder to live a reasonable lifestyle. Those of us in the lowest of tax brackets will see rates increase 50 percent, and it has to be granted that the 13.1% rate hike endured by the top bracket will look paltry by comparison.

The other point Dan left incomplete was mentioning not just those who fled Maryland, but their economic status in comparison to those who arrive to take their place. Several months ago Change Maryland released figures showing these differing numbers and I parsed them to find out the net outflow of income is real despite a slowly growing population. Obviously there are some places where the difference is positive, but the lower performing areas tend to be the poorer ones.

All in all, though, this is another excellent analysis from a guy who’s not choosing to stay quiet after a crushing defeat. I’m not sure why we would have expected otherwise.

This also gives me the opportunity to bring up an event Dan will be a featured speaker at next month. The Turning the Tides 2013 conference will be held in Annapolis at the Doubletree Hotel (site of several past state GOP conventions) and details can be found here. Along with Dan we’ll hear from state and national luminaries like Jim Rutledge, Ken Timmerman, gubernatorial candidate Blaine Young, Pamela Geller, Stanley Kurtz, and many others.