54-40 – so fight!

Those who favor the redefinition of marriage to include those nuptials involving same-sex couples are crowing once again about a poll showing their side in the lead. (h/t: Old Line Elephant.) The poll, done by Hart Associates, shows that the 504 likely voters split 54-40 in favor of keeping the new law, while 515 likely black voters are almost evenly divided on the issue, falling 45-44 against the bill. Moreover, Hart claims their numbers are improved from a previous March poll, where the measure would pass by a 51-43 margin with black voters opposed 49-40.

But if you read further into the Hart polling and compare it to another poll done recently by a pro-gay marriage group, Public Policy Polling, it can be argued that support for the measure is receding. The PPP figures went from 52-44 in favor in March to 57-37 in May – and 55-36 support in the black community.

Perhaps the Obama flip-flop on gay marriage moved the needle in the black community for a time, but that wave may have crested. If you look at the Hart and PPP results on a timeline, gay marriage has lost 19 points in two months among blacks and 6 points among all voters. And remember, it was just a year ago – before the well-funded propaganda blitz by those who believe same-sex marriage is a measure of “equality” rather than an attempt to legitimize what some consider a deviant lifestyle came to pass – that the issue trailed by two points among Maryland voters. A similar margin was found as recently as this past January in the Gonzales Research Maryland Poll.

And lost among these numbers as well is that both PPP and Hart are reliably Democratic pollsters, so since Democrats favor gay marriage enough to make it part of their 2012 platform these pollsters would naturally favor a position to make that side look good and discourage the opposition. The game is revealed in the Hart summary, where they write:

The bottom line is that a November win for marriage equality at the ballot box in Maryland is well within our grasp.

On the other hand, other pollsters which are more open about who they sample can be a little more trustworthy.

Also worthy of mention was that the Hart polling occurred before we saw the reaction on “Chick-fil-A” day – presumably the huge crowd we had in the local stores would be strongly against adopting gay marriage in Maryland, and they turned out to show that support for traditional values. Certainly a few who may have been neutral on the subject could have changed their minds upon seeing the tactics used against Chick-fil-A CEO Dan Cathy for his pro-family stance.

Now as far as I’m concerned a “win for marriage equality” is a loss for the values which made this country great. I’ve said before that I have no problem with civil unions, but gay marriage to me is just another step toward rendering the term meaningless through eventually allowing polyamory and perhaps even adult-child partnerships. Give it a couple decades.

But the timing of conducting and releasing what amounts to a “push poll” (since we don’t have any indication about the sample composition, meaning it was probably weighted to areas and groups more likely to favor gay marriage) is interesting given the vast hordes who joined me in descending upon Chick-fil-A Wednesday. Since the so-called “equality” side certainly knew this outpouring of support for traditional values was coming – although perhaps they underestimated the amount – this poll release had to be designed to deflate whatever good news came out of the Chick-fil-A protests. I’m not buying it as a legitimate expression of support.

As Matt Newman points out at Old Line Elephant, support for same-sex marriage has generally been overstated at pre-election polls. A similar flaw in this instance puts the ballot within the margin of error, so it will be up to both sides to turn out their voters – historically this has been an advantage for conservatives despite their inferior numbers to date in Maryland. And with the plethora of issues on the ballot so far (six statewide issues, plus dozens of local initiatives) there will be a lot to attract conservatives in 2012.