December 2011 – Page 2

National straw polls still like Gingrich – but for how long?

Anyone who’s a political junkie of any sort knows that the presidential winnowing process will begin in Iowa a week from next Tuesday, January 3, 2012. By the end of that day we’ll have some idea of who the Republicans in that state prefer, with the battle then shifting to New Hampshire a week later.

But what if there were a national primary? Well, there is no such thing, but there were two recent straw polls which attempted to widen the focus out a little bit. These polls were conducted by two different groups: one was the Townhall/Hot Air Primary and the other was the Tea Party Straw Poll. I participated in the former but not the latter.

One interesting facet of the Townhall/Hot Air Primary was the opportunity for a “second choice” vote. As we all know, there are times we have to settle for our second choice as Herman Cain supporters are finding out. But I’ll start with their topline results (poll taken December 13-15):

Newt Gingrich 36.5%
Mitt Romney 18.8%
Michele Bachmann 17.7%
Ron Paul 17.4%
Rick Perry 9.5%

Second choices:

Michele Bachmann 25.4%
Newt Gingrich 20.6%
Mitt Romney 20.4%
Rick Perry 18.2%
Ron Paul 15.4%

There’s more summary here, but I found it fascinating that Bachmann supporters were the most diverse and that those who voted for Ron Paul must not have had a second choice. Jonathan Garthwaite’s article doesn’t mention who those that backed Paul voted in as their alternate selection. Worth noting as well is that Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum weren’t included because they didn’t attain 5% in national polls.

The Tea Party primary had the same frontrunner but also a caveat: four of the seven candidates they polled also participated in a tele-forum held in conjunction with the poll, so results may be a little skewed. I’m denoting forum participants with an asterisk (*).

Newt Gingrich* 31%
Michele Bachmann* 28%
Mitt Romney* 20%
Rick Santorum* 16%
Ron Paul 3%
Rick Perry 2%
Jon Huntsman 0% (0.34%)

Obviously the poll was very skewed in favor of participants, but one can still make a reasonable assumption that Bachmann and Santorum in particular get a heavy dose of their support from the TEA Party, with Gingrich enjoying a more broad appeal among conservatives at-large. On the other hand, Mitt Romney isn’t making the hearts of the right wing go pitter-patter.

Yet there’s another item one can read between the lines. It seems that every time one turned around, Ron Paul was winning a straw poll someplace. But he didn’t do all that well in these two (granted, he didn’t participate in the call so his numbers would naturally be artificially lower) at a time when he’s supposedly becoming the front-runner in Iowa. We hear about Newt’s campaign “collapsing” but these numbers don’t necessarily bear that theory out either. I know Paul has his passionate supporters but too many find his isolationist foreign policy scary. And the trumpeting of the news that we’re no longer in Iraq may take away the Long War issue from the front burner.

As we have seen over the last several months of this GOP campaign, a week means a lot. Since the voting began in the Townhall/Hot Air Primary we’ve had a GOP debate and the media has trained its heavy fire on Gingrich. It’s no wonder some voters are having second thoughts, although some must be on thoughts six or seven by now. The only candidate still in the running who hasn’t had his day in the sun is Rick Santorum and maybe he’ll peak just in time for Iowa. Stranger things have happened.

PlanMaryland, like it or not

Why? Because the Governor says so. And you will like it.

I have found it interesting over the last few days that our “beloved” Governor seems to be operating from the shadows. First of all, his hand-picked redistricting committee dumps out the General Assembly redistricting plan on a Friday evening, when many have tuned out for the weekend, and now this move a week before Christmas. It seems to me that he could have gotten the same thing by making it part of his legislative package for the 2012 session and legitimized PlanMaryland more in the eyes of the public. Instead, Martin O’Malley rams it into law via executive order. Maybe he has learned a lesson or two from Barack Obama and certainly eyes the 2016 Democratic nomination.

And while the Executive Order claims that “PlanMaryland is not a substitute for local comprehensive plans and it will not supplant local planning and zoning authority,” let’s see what happens if a local jurisdiction doesn’t “identify proposed Planning Areas by reviewing their existing comprehensive plans and regulations to see where and how they align with Planning Area Guidelines.” Of course, those will be commanded from on high at the Maryland Department of Planning – the same people who gave us our redistricting.

The biggest problem I have with PlanMaryland is my belief that those who already have growth and development will be allowed to keep going, while areas like ours which need something to spur job creation and attract growth will be starved. There’s no question that the Radical Green idea of maintaining our rural heritage isn’t one of agriculture, but restoring our land back to a state of wilderness. Sadly, we have a Governor who’s pretty much in allegiance to Radical Green – hence the War on Rural Maryland.

Moreover, it’s a question of autonomy. Similar to the argument for supporting an elected school board over one appointed by the Governor, generally the closer government is to the people the more responsive and proper it becomes. Our interests may not be those of some Annapolis bureaucrat in his cubicle, but with PlanMaryland what that faceless and feckless automaton says will dictate our policies regardless of how we would prefer to proceed.

Now that the process is underway, a group called the Smart Growth Subcabinet will have the task of receiving reports over the next 180 days from various state agencies on how they will implement PlanMaryland, then another 60 days to come up with a summary report. Thus, by the end of next summer we will have some idea of PlanMaryland’s effects on our way of life.

Speaking for the other side, Delegate Justin Ready noted that “(t)he O’Malley Administration has said that PlanMaryland is nothing new. However, they have also said that it is a ‘first step’. My view is if this is a ‘first step’ towards any change in how we deal with land use in our state – that first step should be vetted by the General Assembly,” Ready concluded. “This discussion will definitely continue in the 2012 Legislative Session.”

However, the problem with Ready’s approach is that it’s almost certainly doomed to fail. Even if legislation which curtails some or all of PlanMaryland manages to pass the General Assembly it’s likely to be vetoed by Governor O’Malley. Then the question would obviously be whether the General Assembly could muster the votes to override next year and I don’t think the majority party really wants to cross the governor. They can conveniently let him take the blame since he’s not up for re-election in 2014 – but they are. And given the short attention span of many Maryland voters who don’t notice their freedoms being eroded drop by drop, they just might get away with it.

Another poll update

I’m working on some other writing today but I wanted to take a moment and catch you up on some results from my best local blog poll.

The fourth matchup was a doozy. At first Delmar DustPan took a modest advantage, but then The Other Salisbury News surged over a short period of time to take a significant lead. But it wasn’t enough as Delmar DustPan stormed back to take the round and advance.

In percentage terms, Delmar DustPan ran away with 69 percent of the vote, while The Other Salisbury News rounded up to 31 percent. Salisbury Soapbox picked up less than 1 percent.

Opening round match number 5 is also an interesting battle between a number of somewhat similar sites from around the region, so we’ll see how that turns out.

Odds and ends number 39

As always, these are my short takes on a number of subjects.

Let’s begin with something the nanny state of Maryland has already addressed, banning hand-held cel phones or texting while driving. Now the National Transportation Safety Board wants to take this ban nationwide, never mind there are already laws in every state against inattentive driving.

I do quite a bit of driving as part of my job and I have to tell you that there are a lot of drivers out there who are on their cel phone – some may be hands-free and others are holding on to theirs. But aside from the fact they may have one or both hands on the steering wheel, I don’t think they’re any more distracted than someone who’s eating their lunch on the run, adjusting their heater or the radio, or yelling at the kids. Should we ban all those activities as well? Trust me, if I were an undercover cop I could rack up a lot of fines for the state by picking up folks who I saw talking on the phone, and could probably find a few scofflaws texting as well.

We don’t need a national texting ban – just a little more common sense.

Speaking of common sense, I think there’s another area where we’re lacking. The internet is great because of its freedom, but there are those who want to enact Chinese-style internet censorship because they’re worried about copyright infringement. This site pokes fun at the idea.

But this could be a serious problem for a blogger like me, because I have my occasional Friday Night Videos series and some of these artists cover songs by other artists. Obviously that’s not a significant portion of my content and I don’t think I’m going to cost any of these original artists any money. But in theory I could run afoul of the law, and that’s completely ridiculous. It’s amazing the excuses people can come up with to dampen the internet, because copyright infringement is only the beginning – next will be restricting what one can say. Constitution? We don’t need no stinkin’ Constitution.

Finally, speaking of the internet, this was an interesting e-mail.

I just received a spam message from a candidate you did an article on. It is a nice Christmas message, and below is says I am on their “Supporters list. ”

I, however, am not on the list. I actually don’t even know who this guy is. Furthermore, I have never been to Maryland. I have never voted in a US election. I am actually Canadian.

And I hate spam like cats hate water. And I find it reprehensible that someone running for senate would be spamming – which here is against the law. I believe it is down there too.

Should I be invited though, I would be happy to make a trip down there and give you guys an honest opinion of the candidates you have running for senate. Please forward this appropriately if need be.

Well I appreciate the readership from north of the border, but it brings up a great point about e-mail address harvesting.

I have no idea just how many e-mail lists I’m on, and there’s a reason I tried to avoid placing any of my work e-mails on e-mail lists – to avoid situations like this person’s.

Still, I’d be curious to know how the e-mail got on the list – probably a typo, judging by the fact it’s a fairly common Gmail address – and what this person really thinks about our Senate candidates.

The best irony, though, is that Eric Wargotz isn’t even running this year but he’s now known in a far-flung place like Regina, Saskatchewan. And now so am I.

Update: There was one more item I meant to throw in. People like to rag on Walmart and those who frequent it, but this writer – presumably one who won’t be part of the 99% since she’s working her way through college – brings up a great point about the need for welfare reform, to wit:

I spent hours upon hours toiling away at a register, scanning, bagging, and dealing with questionable clientele. These were all expected parts of the job, and I was okay with it. What I didn’t expect to be part of my job at Wal-Mart was to witness massive amounts of welfare fraud and abuse.

Read the rest. It’s going to be interesting to see what Maine does with their system since the Republicans were swept into power last year – of course, having said that, one has to consider that what passes for Republican in Maine are RINOs like Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.

Lower Shore gerrymandering in Friday night document dump

Late this evening, the Maryland Department of Planning released their versions (House of Delegates and Senate) of the redistricting map for the General Assembly. For the purpose of this post, though, I’m going to concentrate on Districts 37 and 38.

The new District 37 is a lot like the old one, as they maintained a majority-minority district in 37A which snakes along the U.S. 50 corridor between Salisbury and Cambridge, with a arm of the district heading up toward Hurlock in Dorchester County. But District 37B now makes nearly an entire crescent around the single-member district and swallows up much of the Wicomico County territory formerly in District 38A. Geographically it’s a huge district that takes in all of Talbot County, the southern end of Caroline County, most of Dorchester County and the southern and western ends of Wicomico County, plus a small area near Sharptown. In essence, it moved a little bit southward and eastward.

As for District 38, well, I got part of my wish as it will now be comprised of three single-Delegate seats. The 38A portion, though, now takes in all of Somerset County and the southern half of Worcester County, with a spike running along the U.S. 113 corridor into the Berlin area. I predicted this would happen because it would force two incumbent Republicans (Charles Otto and Mike McDermott) into the same district. Looks like we have our 2014 District 38 Senate candidate now.

District 38B maintains only a sliver of the Wicomico County portion of the existing district, and looks tailor-made for another run by Norm Conway. To me it looks like the western boundary hardly changed so it’s now primarily a Salisbury/Delmar/Fruitland district, as it did move a little bit southward to take in that former 38A territory. The eastern side of Wicomico County and the northern half of Worcester County (except Berlin) now become part of the new District 38C.

So who does this benefit? Obviously the new District 37 will probably keep the incumbents in office, or at least decrease the chance for a non-minority to win the 37A seat. Rich Colburn picked up a decently Republican chunk of Wicomico County but lost quite a bit of Caroline County to District 36. So that is probably a wash. But District 38 was built simply to eliminate one Republican from the area, and the extension of District 38A into Berlin may have been on the behalf of Berlin mayor Gee Williams, who tried for the seat before. Perhaps it’s a more lopsidedly Republican seat, but now it gets only one Delegate.

And I’m stuck with Norm Conway, since I’ll be in the new and smaller District 38B. Unless Mike McDermott moves closer to me, he won’t be my Delegate anymore in a practical sense. But that’s okay – it just means I can give old Five Dollar more flak if he decides to run again, which I hope he doesn’t. Given the fact the district maintained its irregular shape at the western end, my guess is that he will and they eliminated the rural parts of his district to help his cause.

Finally, I’m disappointed with the MDP’s map since it wouldn’t allow me to figure out the new districts close-up – that is unless my laptop isn’t up to the task. So forgive me my wild guesses as to where the districts lie, but before that site failed me I did verify my home is in 38B. Not by a whole lot, though.

Update: This example may illustrate how cut up our area is. Along the first two miles of Mount Hermon Road you can have houses in four different districts. At the far west end of the road and up to Civic Avenue it’s the border between the extreme eastern fringe of District 37A on the north side and 38B on the south side. Then about a mile or so it’s in entirely in 38B, until the road passes under U.S. 13. Then it’s solely in District 38C for a short distance until it crosses a creek just west of Hobbs Road, when the highway becomes the border between 38C on one side and District 37B on the other. Finally, just past Walston Switch Road, the road becomes part of 38C. To use east side landmarks, the airport is in 37B, Perdue Stadium is in 38C, WinterPlace Park is in 38B, and the established part of the Aydelotte neighborhood is on the edge of 37A.

Not enough to tax?

After raising the cigarette tax in 2008 and the alcohol tax last year, a public health advocate (read: lover of big government and the nanny state) wants to jack up taxes on cigars from their current 15 percent rate, according to a recent Washington Times story by David Hill. Vincent DeMarco also spearheaded the unnecessary alcohol tax increase which took effect earlier this year.

I find it interesting that the angle DeMarco uses to justify yet another sin tax is teen smoking. Apparently cigarettes are now too expensive for teens to purchase – thanks to the additional taxes – so they are embracing cigars instead. DeMarco is quoted in the Times, “Anything that is going to stop young people from smoking is a good thing.” Well, sir, I have news for you – raising taxes on cigars and other tobacco products won’t work for that intended purpose. But you’ll certainly extract more money out of those adults who choose to smoke.

Continue reading “Not enough to tax?”

The Shorebird of the Week Hall of Fame Class of 2011

After a few days to update the page, I have reopened my Shorebird of the Week Hall of Fame. Tonight I announce the Class of 2011, which has a record seven members. Of those members, one was a Shorebird of the Week way back in 2006, one in 2007, four in 2008 (the season which now has the most honorees) and one from 2009. (He was the quickest to arrive at the Show after his selection as a Shorebird of the Week.) I also have the first member to make his debut with a team other than Baltimore.

In order of their first MLB appearance, the class of 2011 is:

Pedro Beato, who made his debut with the New York Mets on April 1;
Zach Britton, who debuted with the Orioles on April 3;
Ryan Adams, whose Oriole debut was May 20;
Blake Davis, making his first Oriole appearance June 22;
Matt Angle, brought up to the Orioles on July 17;
Kyle Hudson, a September callup who made his Orioles debut on the 4th, and;
Pedro Florimon, Jr., whose first game was September 10th. He may have the record for shortest Oriole tenure for awhile since he only played in four games for Baltimore and is now property of the Minnesota Twins.

Florimon’s rapid change of scenery illustrates the fickle nature of professional baseball – in the three seasons that the SotWHoF has existed, the members are already in three other organizations aside from Baltimore. David Hernandez was traded last winter to Arizona, Pedro Beato came to the Mets via the Rule 5 Draft in 2010, and Florimon was acquired by the Twins earlier this month after the Orioles waived him from their 40-man roster.

So which former Shorebirds of the Week may be in the Class of 2012? In most cases, the next crop comes from players who are already on the team’s 40-man roster. A look at some former Shorebirds protected as such by Baltimore shows that pitcher Oliver Drake and infielder Joe Mahoney are possibilities.

Others the Orioles could be persuaded to give a shot come from the ranks sent to the Arizona Fall League. Mahoney was in that league along with pitchers Sean Gleason and Cole McCurry as well as outfielder Xavier Avery.

If you judge by that peer group, the Class of 2012 may be somewhat smaller than this year’s crop. But impressive Spring Trainings and player movement could open up other opportunities. For example, three former SotWs were involved in a pair of trades during the Winter Meetings, one which sent Jarret Martin and Tyler Henson to the Los Angeles Dodgers and the other sending Greg Miclat along with former Shorebird Randy Henry, who wasn’t here and healthy long enough to be a SotW, to the Texas Rangers.

My prediction at this stage is that I’ll have another five or six players to add to the SotWHoF next year, and at least one won’t be on this list of possibilities. For example, Blake Davis came out of nowhere this year.

It gives us baseball fans that much more incentive to await the beginning of the 2012 season, both here and at the big league level.

Catching up

In case you missed it the last few days, my best local blog contest continues in a relatively subdued fashion after the wild first matchup.

In the second first-round contest between three local sites, defending champion afterthegoldrush advanced with an overwhelming 71.4% of the vote, besting Lower Eastern Shore News (19.1%) and Atomic Donkey Brewing, which garnered 9.5 percent. It’s the only poll where all three competitors received votes.

The third opening round affair concluded last night with an upset: Sussex County Angel pounded its competition with 82.1% of the vote, with Delmarva Observer getting the other 17.9 percent. Salisbury News was shut out this time around.

So the blogs advancing to the semifinals so far are Right Coast Conservative, afterthegoldrush, and Sussex County Angel. The fourth draw is quite interesting to me, so I’ll be excited to see how it comes out when the poll ends.

Seedings for the semifinalists will be determined once polling is complete for the first round. I’ll take a holiday break from polling after my six opening rounds are complete, so the contest will then return after Christmas.

Maryland’s reborn spectator sport: how many General Assembly members will run for Congress?

We don’t have a representative from all eight districts quite yet, but the news that Minority Leader Tony O’Donnell is going to challenge entrenched Fifth District Congressman Steny Hoyer brings up the question of who will be minding the store?

Let’s look at it district by district:

Obviously the First District has been made more safely Republican, as former State Senator Andy Harris won the seat in 2010 and hasn’t seen any significant Democratic opposition yet. At one time State Senator Jim Mathias was thought to be interested in running, but that may not be in the cards due to a increase in the GOP base there.
In the Second District, where Dutch Ruppersberger has been in office for several terms, the name originally linked to a run was Delegate Pat McDonough. But he’s been waffling over the last months over whether to run for that seat or a statewide U.S. Senate seat; meanwhile former Senate Minority Leader Nancy Jacobs stepped down from that post in order to explore a Second District run.
In the Third and Fourth Districts – John Sarbanes and Donna Edwards, respectively – no member of the General Assembly has stepped forward to make a challenge. In those cases, we’ll probably have to wait until they retire.
As noted above, Tony O’Donnell is challenging Steny Hoyer in the Fifth District.
The Sixth District is a bipartisan circus as Democrats gerrymandered the district into being much more Democrat-friendly than the previous rendition, presumably as a favor to State Senator Rob “Gas Tax” Garagiola to run. But the GOP has its share of politicians doing battle, with current State Senator David Brinkley being joined by recently-deposed former Senator Alex Mooney in the fray – a challenge which also leaves the state GOP scrambling for a Chair during an election year. All of them will have to deal with longtime incumbent Roscoe Bartlett.
So far the Seventh and Eighth Districts, represented by Elijah Cummings and Chris Van Hollen, have also been quiet.
Along with the possibility of Delegate McDonough seeking a Senate seat against incumbent Ben Cardin, some have also spoke about a primary challenge from State Senator C. Anthony Muse of Prince George’s County.

Obviously some of these running will survive the primary, but it will be an interesting exercise in time management to see how they juggle the prospect of a primary battle with the demands placed on them by the “90 Days of Terror” known as the annual General Assembly session. It so happens the filing deadline is also the opening day of the 2012 session and the primary itself will occur just a few days before sine die. Particularly in the Sixth District, this fact may handicap those serving in the Maryland legislature who face opponents which can devote more time to the race.

There’s no question that serving in legislative office at a local level is considered the best training for higher office: many of those who serve in a local Council or Commission graduate to become Delegates or Senators, and in turn they gain the experience voters seek in electing Congressmen and Senators. Fully half of Maryland’s Congressional delegation once served in the Maryland General Assembly.

Obviously those who are seeking election this time, with the cover of incumbency to protect them if they should lose, hope to add to that total.

The calm

Have you ever had the feeling that something is about to break, and the dread you feel is the fear of the unknown?

I suppose it’s more of an attitude I sense than anything, but people are seemingly more on edge now than at any other time I remember. Sure, the holidays are always a stressful time, but the advent of the Occupy movement has shown that there’s a fairly short fuse out there and one helluva powder keg not too far away.

Now don’t start believing I’m turning into one of those survivalists who will stockpile seventeen months’ worth of food and water, building the underground bunker to ride out the unrest sure to come. I don’t think it will get THAT bad, but something just doesn’t feel right about society today. It seems there are too many desperate people out there.

And maybe that’s because we as a society have forced the hand of some of those people.

Continue reading “The calm”

Making customers pay – twice – for a mandate

According to an AP story which came across the WBOC wires, Delmarva Power is looking to extract $39 million from its Delaware-based customers to cover the cost of installing so-called smart meters around the state. In their state Public Service Commission filing the utility claims that they spent $72 million on replacement, with much of it offset by savings but $26 million lost in depreciation value.

PHI, the holding company that owns and operates Delmarva Power, notes in their 2010 Annual Environmental Sustainability Report that “development of (advanced metering infrastructure) is nearing completion in Delaware…In total, PHI is installing about 1.2 million smart meters across its jurisdictions.” In that same report, they boast about receiving a $168 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy to “support the rollout of our smart grid initiatives.” In other words, they used our tax dollars to get this ball rolling and now expect ratepayers to make up the difference. Now that’s chutzpah.

Continue reading “Making customers pay – twice – for a mandate”

And yet they blame farmers?

There was a story in yesterday’s Baltimore Sun by Timothy Wheeler which was brought to my attention, a story which documented the troubles both Baltimore City and County are having with a sewage infrastructure which, in some cases, is over a century old. Between the two municipalities over 160 million gallons of untreated sewage has leaked into the watershed this year alone.

Obviously this is a situation which is slowly being addressed, as the story points out over $2 billion is being invested into repairing the system over the next decade. Certainly that’s a legitimate function of government, and I have no objection to local tax dollars being used in such a manner.

It’s the unfortunate tendency of farmers and rural interests getting the blame for a problem that occurs because of urban areas like Baltimore City and County which bothers me the most.

Continue reading “And yet they blame farmers?”