Tracking the Shorebirds 2011

Written on the day of the annual South Atlantic League All-Star Game that marks the season’s midway point, each year I mention this is one of my favorite posts to write. It got even more exciting when I found this site because now I know the baseball fate for all of the over 100 players I’ve selected over the last 5 1/2 seasons as Shorebird of the Week. It also makes it easier to organize this post!

Let’s start by going back to 2006, when I picked my initial crop of 22 Shorebirds of the Week.

Out of that group, eight are still active and I’ll pick up their story in a moment. As for the other fourteen, most didn’t progress beyond class-A ball and were released after playing with Delmarva or Frederick in their final season. A few latched on to independent league teams in the Can-Am League (1), Atlantic League (1), and Frontier League (2.) Trevor Caughey even traveled as far as Australia to keep playing last year. The inactive group includes my 2006 Shorebird of the Year, Ryan Finan, who last played at Bowie in 2008.

The eight honorees from 2006 who are still active are all over the baseball map. Three are on major league rosters: David Hernandez was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Mark Reynolds deal, Brad Bergesen has bounced between Baltimore and Norfolk, starter and bullpen over the last three seasons, and Blake Davis was just called up on Friday to make his debut in The Show. Meanwhile, Brandon Snyder, who’s spent some time with the Orioles over the last two seasons, is back in Norfolk.

Two others have yet to crack the Orioles roster but are considered prospects to do so. Brandon Erbe, who I picked as my 2006 Prospect of the Year, is on Norfolk’s disabled list but also is on Baltimore’s 40-man roster, as is Chorye Spoone of Bowie.

That leaves two other active players. After being dropped by the Orioles organization Jon Tucker is now playing for Harrisburg, the AA affiliate of the Washington Nationals. Lorenzo Scott, Jr. spent several years in the Florida organization after they plucked him from the Orioles in the Rule 5 Draft. He also played briefly in the Mets chain and is now playing in the American Association for the Gary South Shore RailCats.

A group of 20 players made up the 2007 Shorebirds of the Week (two repeated from 2006.) Just seven of the 20 remain active.

Once again, most of the other thirteen inactives didn’t progress beyond class-A ball. As opposed to the 2006 group, only one of the 2007 crop eventually tried his luck in independent league ball, playing for a season in the Atlantic League. Notably, Chad Thall just voluntarily decided this month to hang up his spikes as a member of the Montgomery Biscuits of the Southern League, the AA team of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Active players from that 2007 group play everywhere from the bigs to the independents. Pedro Beato was taken by the New York Mets in the Rule 5 Draft and has been an integral part of their bullpen this season. Still with the Orioles and playing at Bowie are three of my 2007 choices: Billy Rowell, Tim Bascom, and Zach Clark; Miguel Abreu is now at Frederick.

The other two play against each other in the independent American Association: Brandon Tripp with the St. Paul Saints and my 2007 Shorebird of the Year Danny Figueroa with the Grand Prairie AirHogs. (Brad Bergesen, a repeat pick from 2006, was my 2007 Prospect of the Year.)

I had no repeat selections in 2008, so there were 22 players to track once again. And for the first time, the majority are active players and most others only wrapped up their playing days after last season. Again, most of that nine-player group didn’t advance past A ball while three played for a time with independent league teams. (I count Mick Mattaliano among the ‘inactive’ list simply because he was released by the Washington Wild Things of the Frontier League just a week ago.) Others played in the Northern or Atlantic Leagues last season but didn’t latch onto a team this time.

Two of that 2008 group have made it to the Orioles. Zach Britton has been one of the top rookie pitchers in the American League while Ryan Adams was just sent down after a cup of coffee in the bigs. (I definitely called Britton right as my Prospect of the Year for 2008.) Others are literally all through the Orioles organization: Matt Angle, Cole McCurry, and Tyler Henson with Norfolk; Pedro Florimon Jr. and Joe Mahoney with Bowie; Sean Gleason (my 2008 Shorebird of the Year) and Nate Nery with Frederick (Nery’s on their disabled list); and Luis Noel is back with Delmarva. Meanwhile, the oft-injured Tony Butler is back in organized ball, pitching for the Everett AquaSox in the Northwest League. (They are the rookie short-season Seattle Mariners affiliate.) I was happy to see that.

The other two are looking to catch back on with a big-league organization through independent league ball: John Mariotti with the Quebec Capitales of the Can-Am League and Matt Tucker with the Amarillo Sox of the American Association.

I had a record four repeaters in 2009, so the gaggle I’m following for that season is just 18 players. All but four are active, with three of those four not getting past class-A ball. Brent Allar was a minor league Rule 5 pick of the Florida Marlins but didn’t latch on with them, nor did the Orioles take him back after spring training.

The remainder all are still in the Orioles farm system. Kyle Hudson has broken into Norfolk’s lineup, but half the group is on Bowie’s roster: Richard Zagone, Ron Welty (my 2009 Shorebird of the Year), Eddie Gamboa (on rehab with Aberdeen), Xavier Avery, Greg Miclat, L.J. Hoes (my Prospect of the Year), and Brandon Cooney. One step up with Frederick are Oliver Drake, Ryan O’Shea, Nathan Moreau, Tyler Kolodny, and Jacob Julius.

Luis Bernardo is now a member of the Gulf Coast League Orioles, but the reason he’s regressed is a little different: after several seasons as a light-hitting catcher who progressed as high as Frederick this season, he’s attempting a new career as a pitcher. Maybe we’ll see him back in a Shorebirds jersey, but on the mound.

I broke my one year old record by having five repeat honorees last year, so it’s 17 players I’m following from a year ago. Needless to say, most are still active with Delmarva or Frederick.

  • With Frederick: Garabez Rosa, Ryan Berry (on DL), Josh Dowdy (on DL), Steve Bumbry, Kenny Moreland, 2010 Prospect of the Year Tyler Townsend (on DL), Bobby Bundy, and Nick Haughian.
  • Here at Delmarva: Mikey Planeta, Kieron Pope, Ryan Minor, Jesse Beal (on DL), Ty Kelly, and Justin Dalles.

James Brandhorst is pitching with Aberdeen.

The news hasn’t been so good for T.J. Baxter or Brian Conley, who I picked as my Shorebird of the Year for 2010. Baxter was let go by the Orioles after last season, tried to latch on with the Chicago Cubs system, and was cut after spring training. Conley started out the season here and I thought the Orioles would keep him around for a veteran presence; instead they moved him up to Frederick briefly then let him go. Conley didn’t quite set the record for release set by the hapless selectee who I think was waived literally the day after I picked him, but he was close.

As this process matures and the number of honorees grows, I can tell you that I will have a bumper crop of Shorebird of the Week Hall of Fame inductees this fall. The roster of three through 2010 explodes to at least seven this fall – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see double digits by the end of the season since the Orioles likely won’t be in the playoff hunt and several players may get their major league debut.

It’s something to watch in the second half; well, besides the chance for the Shorebirds to square off against Hickory in the SAL playoffs.

Interviews

Just as a quick programming note, over the next few days I’m going to attempt to have all the Republican U.S. Senate candidates from Maryland agree to a blog interview here.

A few years back, I had a segment I called “Ten Questions” where I did something similar, but this time I’m going to let the conversation go where it may instead of having all candidates answer the same questions. I’m hoping it is more informative about what motivates these six (so far) hopefuls to seek statewide office – some for the second, third, or moreth time. (Yes, I know, moreth isn’t a word. But I like it.)

I’m hoping that the first one of these can be ready by the end of the month, but that’s going to depend on the candidates and their willingness to open up. I look forward to the challenge.

Tomorrow you’ll get one of my favorite posts to do all year. Tonight I spend a little quality time with someone special.

Third Friday June in pictures and text

I may not be first to post, but I’ll bet I have the most to add to the conversation. The local bloggers were crawling all over this one.

There are those who knock the event for low participation, but still vendors come to the Plaza or open along Main Street to peddle their wares at Third Friday. I’m including the next picture to make a point about one particular vendor and downtown in general.

I have no idea why this building is “coming soon,” when the property records for 224 West Main show the units are sold. (The website doesn’t work either.) So there are a few people living downtown.

Yet there were a pair of realtors at Third Friday trying to sell the 29 remaining units at River Place (of 42 built) for a fire-sale price. Since I was looking at property records anyway, I noticed units there have sold for anywhere between $236,000 and $650,000 (for a larger penthouse unit.) The most recent sale was the $236,000 unit last fall.

I’m not trying to disparage the ladies doing their job or the people who bought high. But in order to bring people to the downtown area to live, perhaps the sights should have been set lower. Does a young professional – the type who would tend to not mind living downtown – really need a 1,600 square foot condo like River Place? Perhaps the reason these units on West Main sold was their size and affordability. (It appeared many in the Brickshire were sold after being bank-owned.)

As for the crowd down there, you can judge for yourself. I took these shots between 7 and 7:30 around the Plaza. Note the weather was looking more threatening as time went on.

Again, I guess anyone who comes downtown on a sultry night either wants a bargain or just to participate in a fun community event in an All-American City. When did they put these banners up?

I think it’s a little ironic that Delmar Pizza is a sign sponsor, but I suppose they want to advertise too.

And the artists were there, inside.

They were selling beer there, but you couldn’t take it outside. What good would that be? Sometimes I think the nanny state goes a little too far with alcohol-related regulations – why not allow open containers in this case since the Plaza is closed to traffic?

Maybe it was better in the end, though, since the rain hit about 8:30. I’m sure the passing shower didn’t do wonders for the impromptu Flavors Memorial put up for Third Friday.

People were leaving impassioned messages, too.

It makes you wonder why the business closed if so many were interested in it. Then again, I don’t know what the margin on beer is as opposed to the margin on pizza. I thought their pizza was pretty good on the three or four occasions I went to Flavors and I can vouch that at least The Permilla Project drew a crowd there.

But now it’s just another restaurant casualty in Salisbury like Checkers, English’s, and many others through the years which are missed to a varying extent.

Of course, the problem whereas Third Friday is concerned is that Flavors served as an anchor and draw at the eastern end of the festivities. Now they don’t have much to draw people down that way, and it creates a scenario where businesses along East Main may not have as much incentive to participate. Perhaps Third Friday needs to retrench and just concentrate on participation by Plaza businesses unless someone else steps up to create an attraction in the area where Flavors was.

Yet as long as someone is interested in taking a little time and trying to make a little money I suppose Third Friday will survive a little longer.

You may have noticed I didn’t talk about the musical aspect of 3F – well, what do you think my Weekend of Local Rock series is for? Look for that in the near future.

For President 2012: Campaign finance/election and property rights

Today I begin the process of selecting my personal favorite Presidential candidate, not based on personalities or glitzy campaign promises, but on issues. As I pointed out last month, I have a system to score candidates based on their positions on several topics key to me.

The first two topics are relatively obscure, and the candidates haven’t devoted a lot of time to them. This made it harder to get a good read on the situation; luckily if I’m completely misreading a position it’s only a few points gained or lost. For the most part, I’m betting I have a crop of three to four hopefuls who will stand out above the rest anyway.

Note I haven’t included a few candidates who may yet get into the game. I’m doing the originals as Word files so I can keep them close for reference in the future. And I’m doing both Republicans and Democrats, so let’s start with campaign finance reform and election law.

Michele Bachmann has a limited voting record and comments on the issue, but her positions are fine so I’ll kick her off with one point of three.

With Herman Cain noting in Politico that “civil rights groups encourage voter fraud by opposing voter identification bills…all they’re trying to do is protect the voter fraud they know is going on,” he’s got the right idea. I’m giving him all three points.

While serving in the House, Newt Gingrich had a solid voting record on campaign finance so I’m giving him two points. I don’t think his positions have softened, but haven’t heard the bold sort of statement that Cain made out of him.

Jon Huntsman signed a decent voter-ID law as governor of Utah, so that’s a step in the right direction. But he also signed a bill allowing online voter registration, which wiped out some of that goodwill. Some things are too important to do online. So he gets just one point.

I haven’t been able to discern where Gary Johnson would stand on this issue, so no points for him.

Interestingly enough, Fred Karger supports lowering the voting age to “16 or 17.” And this report states he’s against voter ID. If anything, I question the wisdom of allowing youth to vote (maybe the age of majority needs to revert to 21) so it doesn’t sound like he and I would agree on the issue. He’s docked all three points.

Thad McCotter voted for voter ID on the federal level, but also voted for restricting 527s as well. I’ll give him two of three points.

Roy Moore hasn’t stated a public position on any of these issues, so I can’t give him points either.

Similarly to Gingrich, Ron Paul has made all the right votes on campaign finance and has maintained his position throughout. Since he’s currently serving in Congress, I’m giving him three points.

He got good marks from the Club for Growth on campaign finance as Governor of Minnesota, so Tim Pawlenty gets a good mark from me as well. I’m giving him 2 points.

Buddy Roemer has a key point right on his current home page: “(W)e will talk about a lot of issues in this campaign. But we will start by tackling special interest money that impacts all the rest.” Roemer claims he won’t take any contribution greater than $100 nor will he take PAC money.

It’s a very populist position to take, but it’s the wrong one. I equate money with speech, and placing an artificial restriction on contributions is a limit on speech in my eyes. (It’s also suicidal when you figure Barack Obama to raise $1 billion from special interests.) I’m deducting two points only because he’s consistent with this stance since his days in Congress.

Apparently Mitt Romney has had a change of heart on the campaign finance issue. While he’s come around to the right side, I don’t know how sincere he is on the subject so I’ll not give him any points.

Rick Santorum made mostly correct votes on this subject while in the Senate, and has a long enough body of work that I’m comfortable giving him two points.

Now for the Democrats:

Barack Obama, of course, disagreed with the Citizens United decision and backed the DISCLOSE Act, plus his campaign came out strongly bashing voter ID – three bad moves and a loss of thee points.

On the other hand, Randall Terry doesn’t stake out a position on the issue, so no points.

In the very early stages we have a close race. On the Republican side:

  • Herman Cain, 3 points
  • Ron Paul, 3 points
  • Newt Gingrich, 2 points
  • Thad McCotter, 2 points
  • Tim Pawlenty, 2 points
  • Rick Santorum, 2 points
  • Michele Bachmann, 1 point
  • Jon Huntsman, 1 point
  • Gary Johnson, 0 points
  • Roy Moore, 0 points
  • Mitt Romney, 0 points
  • Buddy Roemer, (-2) points
  • Fred Karger, (-3) points

Democrats:

  • Randall Terry, 0 points
  • Barack Obama, (-3) points

Now I turn to private property rights. Again, this was sort of tough because most candidates haven’t addressed this as directly as I’d like.

Let’s begin with Michele Bachmann, who cited Fifth Amendment rights in castigating the BP settlement. I think she knows government’s place, so I’m giving her four of five points.

Herman Cain hasn’t said much on the subject yet, and aside from a brief mention of property seizure portions of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill on his issues page, there’s not much to go on. I’ll give him one point.

Overturning the Kelo decision would be a good start on Newt Gingrich‘s agenda, and I can give him all five points for that and defending property rights while in Congress.

Jon Huntsman was ahead of the curve on Kelo and advocated for American companies regarding intellectual property rights while Ambassador to China. My only knock is whether he was leading or following in his capacity, so I’ll give him four points.

I would imagine Gary Johnson would oppose the Kelo decision, but when he talks about “civil liberties” he doesn’t speak to private property rights. I’ll grant him one point since he talks about other civil liberties that most GOP candidates don’t.

It doesn’t appear Fred Karger has delved into property rights issues, so no points for him.

Thad McCotter has a reasonable record on property rights by the look of things, so I’ll give him three points of five.

While it was hinted in this article he penned that Roy Moore was against the Kelo decision, the fact that he stood up for private property rights at a rally shows me he’s likely on the right side. Five points.

Ron Paul is an odd case. His voting record would suggest he supports private property rights, but in looking up Gary Johnson I saw that Paul supported the Kelo decision. I can only give him two points based on voting record.

Tim Pawlenty seemed to have an eye toward protecting property rights when he signed legislation like this and this. He’ll earn the five points.

This video explains how Buddy Roemer feels about “imminent” (sic) domain. I essentially like what he says, but that 1% and blowing the spelling will lose him two points of the five. Give him three.

Mitt Romney “believes the Kelo property rights case was wrongly decided.” He’s right, but Massachusetts still ranks among the worst states for eminent domain abuse. So I’ll only give him three points.

Back in 2005 Rick Santorum termed the Kelo decision as “undermining people’s fundamental rights to property.” I think he gets it, so I’ll give him the five points.

Among the two Democrats, Barack Obama made his most egregious assault on property rights when he placed unions ahead of bondholders in the auto bailout. That offense gets him docked five points.

On the other hand, Randall Terry is winning the Democratic side by not having a position. No points.

Updating the standings shows we have a close race among a number of contenders.

  • Newt Gingrich, 7 points
  • Tim Pawlenty, 7 points
  • Rick Santorum, 7 points
  • Michele Bachmann, 5 points
  • Jon Huntsman, 5 points
  • Thad McCotter, 5 points
  • Roy Moore, 5 points
  • Ron Paul, 5 points
  • Herman Cain, 4 points
  • Mitt Romney, 3 points
  • Gary Johnson, 1 point
  • Buddy Roemer, 1 point
  • Fred Karger, (-3) points

Democrats:

  • Randall Terry, 0 points
  • Barack Obama, (-8) points

Can Barack Obama get to (-100)? He just might. But I think it’s shaping up to be an interesting race between as many as 8 candidates for the top spot, and you never know. Two sections in last time I had Duncan Hunter leading, Mike Huckabee second, and John McCain third (they finished first, fourth, and tenth, respectively, in a 10-man field.)

The next time I’ll probably tackle two subjects again before going to individual posts for the remainder as they have more priority. So next up is Second Amendment rights and education, for seven and eight points respectively. Once that’s done, 23 of 100 points will be decided.

A wild polling ride

As you may have noticed, I’ve placed one of my infamous political polls in the sidebar.

My recollection from when I did this last year was that my polls may not necessarily be the best indicator of public sentiment, but they are pretty good at seeing how passionate backing for a candidate is. For example, I’ve been tracking interim totals over the time the poll’s been up to see the ebb and flow of trends.

I put the poll up late Wednesday evening. When I went to bed early Thursday morning there weren’t a lot of votes yet, but I did find out someone in the Capps campaign reads the site. The totals at that point: Capps 7, Bongino 3, Wargotz 1.

So I woke up Thursday morning and went about my day. Checking in at 4:00 that afternoon, the updated figures were: Bongino 20, Capps 16, Wargotz 1. Someone woke up the Bongino camp, I guess.

But then Thursday evening there was a concerted Eric Wargotz push, so much so that when I went to bed around midnight the revised totals were: Wargotz 63, Capps 25, Bongino 20, Vaughn 3, Broadus 1, and Hoover 1. Someone got the others on the board about 24 hours into the poll (although Broadus was added to the poll on Thursday afternoon.)

The roller-coaster ride continued this morning as the Capps forces went back to work: Capps 160, Bongino 105, Wargotz 94, Vaughn 35, Hoover 5, Broadus 4.

But then the Capps surge stopped and Bongino is trending – as of this moment it’s Bongino 166, Capps 160, Wargotz 94, Vaughn 35, Broadus 5, Hoover 5. In other words, over the last 7 hours all but one vote went to Bongino.

Obviously I don’t do a scientific poll. But as I noted above one thing this does measure to some extent is the passion and organization behind a candidate. I figure that people who are out to stack a poll such as mine exist in proportion to the actual support they have in the population, give or take a few. (I can also tell you it’s making my page load number huge today – normally I get about 1.3 to 1.5 page loads per reader; today it’s about 3.5 per.) So if there’s only 1 person in 100 who would stack a poll for Rick Hoover vs. 40 who would for Eric Wargotz, that’s probably how the poll should work too, more or less. And my readership likely trends a little more conservative than the average GOP voter.

It’s a lot of fun for me to watch, though, and it makes for an interesting post. That’s what counts.

Shorebird of the Week – June 16, 2011

Mikey Planeta has solidfied center field for the Shorebirds since being added to the roster in May.

While he didn’t start the season on the Shorebirds’ roster, Mikey Planeta has returned to solidify center field for the Shorebirds.

It’s his second tour of duty with the team, and thus far Mikey has improved quite a bit on the .226/0/33 he posted in 117 games last season. In 38 games so far this year, the 27th round pick from 2009 is posting a .276/0/7 mark, improving his OPS from .545 to .658 in the process.

Planeta also has developed a reputation as an outfielder whose arm a runner shouldn’t challenge. He was near the league’s top in outfield assists last season and likely will be there again this year as he has a accurate arm. Perhaps he doesn’t have the blazing speed one would expect from a center fielder but he has stolen as many as 14 bases in a season (last year.)

The one knock on his game is needing to be more selective at the plate – Mikey’s struck out 42 times this season in 163 at-bats while walking just 6. Last year he had a 123:18 strikeout to walk ratio, so it’s likely the part of his game which needs the most work.

A native of Arizona, Mikey played at Glendale Community College before being drafted in 2009. And since he’s only 21, he could have a future in the organization as a corner outfielder based on his arm. It’s likely the Orioles will be in no hurry to move him up as they have a few talented outfielders in the system above him so should be able to enjoy Planeta’s game for the rest of this season, anyway. He should get plenty of at-bats to work on plate discipline.

Thoughts and updates

I was thinking a little bit about the Presidential race this evening, and it started when I moderated a comment on my last post from Phil Collins (who I presume is not “the” Phil Collins, just like the Maryland GOP ranks have a Dick Cheney who isn’t the former VP.) He claims that he spoke personally to Buddy Roemer last Thursday and “he’ll run.”

If you believe the conventional wisdom, a guy like Roemer has no shot against a cadre of candidates who have money and name recognition. You know the names: Romney, Palin, perhaps Huntsman and Pawlenty as well. According to those “in the know” the rest may as well stay home for various reasons: they’re running horrible campaigns (Newt Gingrich), too extreme for the American public (Ron Paul, Rick Santorum), or no one knows who they are (the rest.) Funny, but I seem to recall back in 2007 the 2008 election was going to be that 2000 New York U.S. Senate race pundits were salivating over (but never occurred): Rudy Giuliani vs. Hillary Clinton.

Almost anyone who runs for President thinks they’ll win, although there is that segment of society who has the ego trip of placing their name on the ballot line. (It’s why there are 156 – and counting – who have filed with the FEC to run. Most won’t even qualify for the ballot in Maryland.) The serious candidates, though, are the ones who are planning their message and the means to get it out there.

Yet even in this age of new media punditry, conventional wisdom makes the rules. Why else would a candidate who had not announced be invited to a GOP contender debate when others who were already in the race get snubbed? It’s understandable that a stage with over 150 contenders would make for useless debate, but someone like Gary Johnson belonged on the stage in New Hampshire. (Similarly, Buddy Roemer was snubbed for both New Hampshire and an earlier debate in South Carolina.) I think the 11 contestants I list on the GOP side are the most legitimate because they have some political experience and have a viable campaign. Others I would include on that list if they chose to run would be Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, and Rudy Giuliani. That’s not to say those are the only three, just the most likely.

It’s for those candidates who have announced that I’m slowly but surely working on the series of posts which will establish the Presidential hopeful I’ll stand behind this primary season.

Now some would say my track record is not good, as I supported Duncan Hunter in 2008 and preferred Steve Forbes when he ran in 1996 and 2000, but that’s only because the rest of the nation hasn’t caught up with me yet. (I say that only half-joking. Imagine what our country would be like with a flat tax system and a tougher foreign and trade policy like Hunter prescribed. I daresay our economic circumstances would be much improved.) Obviously I have a broad mix of conservative and libertarian views on issues, but it’s very complex. Someone said that the ideal candidate would take a little bit from everyone in the race, and I think almost every GOP candidate will have areas they shine in.

But since I want to use column space for this important issue, something has to give and I think I’m going to wait until later this fall to complete the monoblogue Accountability Project. After all, we have a Special Session so there’s no point in compiling legislative awards for the year until that’s over. The good news is that I have the most of the list of votes I’m using handy so the rest is just compilation. (I only need to find three good floor amendment votes to finish the list of 25 key votes for the session. The hard part will be limiting it to three, I’m sure.) I was also going to do it by county but since districts will be changing before the next election I’ll hold on to the old format until closer to 2014. It makes my life a little easier!

That’s one update. A second piece of news is that I should have a new advertiser soon, bringing my list to three. Yes, it’s a modest number compared to other websites but all have paid me in advance. They see value in maintaining a quality website which brings a mix of content on a daily basis. (You can too.)

So look for the posts on picking the Presidential candidates, along with other good stuff coming your way.

Who’s in all the way?

The potential Republican field for President continues to grow, as Michele Bachmann announced her intention to run during last night’s GOP debate and Jon Huntsman is reportedly in as well. I’ve already added her temporary site to my sidebar and will add Huntsman in once things are settled.

Of course, some other names who may see blood in the water in a foundering economy and a clueless President Obama include Texas Governor Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, and 2008 candidate Rudy Giuliani. But who has actually committed?

Among GOP candidates, the FEC Form 2 filers include:

  • Herman Cain (May 3)
  • Newt Gingrich (May 16)
  • Gary Johnson (May 2)
  • Fred Karger (March 23)
  • Ron Paul (May 13)
  • Tim Pawlenty (March 21)
  • Buddy Roemer (March 3)
  • Mitt Romney (April 11)
  • Rick Santorum (June 6)

Of those on my list, Michele Bachmann will likely file shortly and Roy Moore claims on his website that he has an exploratory committee although no federal filing has occurred. President Obama (April 4) and Randall Terry (January 11) are in so far as Democrats.

With the prospect of two or three more joining a field already at a dozen or more serious participants, history may repeat itself later this summer once results are in at the Ames Straw Poll. Even though Mitt Romney isn’t participating, finishing outside the top ten may be a sign that a candidate won’t be viable. (Granted, two participants would be from neighboring Minnesota so results may not necessarily reflect national preference.) Although John McCain fared poorly in Ames in 2007 yet came back to win the nomination, most of those who finish out of the top six to eight are likely to be folding their tents before the primary season. There’s not enough money and volunteers out there to support 15 contenders.

If I were to make a guess at who won’t be around long-term, I would say the two obviously on the bubble are Roy Moore and Buddy Roemer. The next two who would be likely to bow out would be Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann, since I think Sarah Palin gets in and steals her support. I also think Gary Johnson and Fred Karger will stay in to make a point, as it’s unlikely they’ll gain the nomination and barely register in polls.

Of course, that and five bucks might get you a gallon of gas by the time the Ames Straw Poll occurs on August 11. But we as political pundits need something to write about, don’t we?

One man’s opinion

I have all the respect in the world for Muir Boda, and once I read the letter he had published in the Daily Times yesterday I decided to reprint it here as well.

As a citizen of the City of Salisbury and one who has been actively involved in city politics for the past couple of years, I have grave concerns over the process with which the City Council handled the budget process this year. I do feel some good things came out of the budget, such as removing furlough days for Police Officers and reducing the number of furlough days for the remaining city employees.

My concern is solely on the process and what appears to be a lack of negotiation and communication between the Office of the Mayor and the City Council. I have an even greater concern with the fact that the Council did not schedule a work session between the public hearing and the vote on the budget that included their amendments. Many ideas and suggestions were brought forth in the hearing and should have been discussed and considered before final passage.

I am also concerned that the Council was so quick to schedule an emergency session to override the Mayor’s veto. This was not an emergency; June 30th would have been considered an emergency, not June 8th. There still would have been plenty of time to for the Council to reach out to the Mayor to work on getting the budget to where all could have agreed.

This is very disappointing and their actions as a council are in contrast to what some on the council campaigned against and have complained about concerning past councils.

Reaction to the letter in the Daily Times comment section has been limited but seems to consist of bashing his supposed alliance with SAPOA and praise for Laura Mitchell. It doesn’t address the letter itself, so I took these (anonymous) people to task:

Whether Muir Boda would have voted for or against the budget is irrelevant to the conversation. He is correct that the city’s budget process was acrimonious and didn’t need to be done in such haste – that was his point.

I happen to think more people should have voted for Muir Boda as I did, but we are stuck with the Council we have because the people spoke back in April based on campaign promises of sweetness and light among the Council if the Camden crew were elected. Well, looks like too many of us were fooled again.

Now I don’t expect the mayor and council of any community to get along 100 percent of the time; in fact, a little bit of tension and rivalry can be a good thing. And Lord knows I’m certainly no Jim Ireton cheerleader but the depths we’ve descended to in this town are ridiculous. Where Muir’s argument is strongest is where he contends there was no big hurry – although Mayor Ireton was quick to slap his veto on the budget as presented by Council, there still was plenty of time for the two sides to discuss a compromise before the override.

However, Muir is somewhat incorrect on one key point: to not have a budget by June 30th would have against the City Charter, which stipulates the budget must be passed by June 15th (SC7-21 here.) Otherwise, the mayor’s budget would have been the one in force. Still, there was some time to work things out but both sides instead made a public show of rejecting the other’s budgetary guidance.

On another subject, I’m sort of curious what led Laura Mitchell to override the veto. (Guess I could e-mail her and ask, or she may enlighten us with a comment here.) Considering that there were three votes in pocket coming from the Camden mob, hers was the swing vote between the mayor’s budget and Council’s proposal. On the other hand, Shanie Shields is definitely the odd person out in this edition of Council and it will be interesting to see how that District 1 race shakes out in 2013 since she won’t run again.

All in all, Boda is correct in pointing out this is another black eye in Salisbury politics. Between the veto override and his favorite watering hole closing, last week was a bad one for Mayor Ireton. While one can always find a new hangout, the budget setback makes me wonder whether he will have the desire for another term in 2013 himself?

A symptom or a disease? Part 2

Last month I made a post which pondered whether the economic situation was adversely affecting the Delmarva Shorebirds and their attendance, which seems to be markedly down from last year.

But in speaking with Shorebirds General Manager Chris Bitters on the subject, he protested that last season wasn’t a fair comparison because this year’s schedule is front-loaded with home games and attendance picks up once kids are out of school. I thought it was a fair critique so today I did a little research.

Looking back in time, the Shorebirds last had a comparable schedule in 2007. Like this year’s, it featured a long June break as the 2007 edition of the team was sent on the road to both complete the first half of the season and begin the second half – that season Perdue Stadium was dark for 2 1/2 straight weeks in June. (At least this year we have the SAL All-Star Game to break up the monotony.)

So I went back to the milb.com archives and looked up each home game of the first half of the 2007 season. In total, there were 31 home dates as four starts were rained out. Add it up and the 2007 first half attendance was 96,310, an average of 3,107 per game.

Fast forward to 2011. Going into last night’s scheduled contest, the Shorebirds had drawn 95,556 for 33 home games. On paper, the per-game average of 2,895 looks to be about 10 percent behind the 2007 clip and well behind last season’s full-season totals.

However, having attended the game I would venture to say that there were at least 5,000 people there last night for a game which was eventually suspended. It’s not counted in our attendance because the game wasn’t completed and will have to be finished next week in Hagerstown because the half is almost over. If you add that lost home date and the estimated 5,000 patrons in to the total of 95,556 which had previously attended so far in 2011, the average would have jumped to 3,104. It makes the comparison pretty much a wash.

In fact, given the fact there were two fewer weekend dates (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) on the schedule so far this year, it would appear the Shorebirds haven’t lost a step and could be headed for a pretty decent season as far as attendance goes. You can also add in the fact that the weather hasn’t been all that bad since the average temperature at the Shorebirds starts was 72 degrees vs. 71 degrees in 2007.

Still, my only concern is that attendance at weekday games has been fairly pathetic, as one game this season barely drew 500 fans. A good percentage of the crowds so far have been enticed by the free tickets given out for reading a certain number of books. (The tickets are paid for by the event sponsors.)

So perhaps I was a little hasty in predicting a down year for the Shorebirds, but that’s okay. I’d rather err on the side of caution.

Yet all is not sweetness and light. Today’s Daily Times featured a loving obituary for the Flavors restaurant which used to be on East Main Street downtown. Add to that the bankruptcy of Allen Family Foods last week, where its assets will likely be purchased by Mountaire Farms, and the impending closing of the local Super Fresh grocery store (with about 80 or so jobs lost) and it’s no wonder people may not be able to afford a ballgame soon. For every success story we seem to have two to three failures.

Allen Family Foods is a blow specific to the Shorebirds because they were longtime team sponsors, annually hosting an employee appreciation night. It’s one business which won’t be contributing to the community anymore. Even Flavors had a Shorebirds connection because they were the pizza vendors for one season a couple years back. (The pizza they have now is not as good.)

But there’s more to the story, and it’s about lost dreams in the last four years.

After the beginning of the rain delay that finished the game last night, Kim and I discussed where we should go to eat. I bemoaned the fact there were no close-by restaurants to the stadium and related to her that there once were grand plans to put up a business complex along Hobbs Road – a complex which would include restaurants, upscale motels, and office space. But that plan was shelved with our local economic collapse and may not be resurrected for a half-decade or more even though the signs are still there announcing the development.

Since I’m comparing our attendance this year to that of four years ago, let me close with this. Back in 2007, the dream of developing the land along Hobbs Road was on its way to becoming a reality as the plans were being drawn up and legal action taken to secure city water and sewer. We may have the same attendance at the old ball game, but we don’t have those grandiose schemes anymore.

And until we can straighten out the economic mess we are in, it may be a long while before we see attendance like we did in the early days of the Shorebirds franchise. To be quite honest, having the Shorebirds here was a key factor in my decision to relocate from Toledo because – to put it mildly – I’m a passionate fan of baseball and I wanted a team close by so I could go to games. While I’d seen “Delmarva Shorebirds” in the agate type of the transactions page on occasion, I had no idea they played in Salisbury until I came here for my job interview.

But even more than a regional drawing card like the Shorebirds, people need to have money to spend, and the lack of job creation hinders businesses of all sorts. Let’s keep capital in the private sector where it belongs so smart people can invest and create opportunities for themselves.

Odds and ends number 30

It seems like I’m doing these quick-hitter articles more frequently; whether it’s because I’m attracting more interesting news or getting the attention span of a 14-year-old is the question. Now what was I saying?

Oh yeah. Let’s start with the public service announcement that’s part of the “Keep Jim Fineran Occupied Act”:

Due to extreme heat and drought conditions, County Executive Richard M. Pollitt, Jr., has issued a burn ban order for Wicomico County effective immediately. Pollitt took the action on the advice of his Burn Ban Committee. The group is composed of representatives of the County Health Department, the Forestry Service, Emergency Management Services, fire fighters and a local meteorologist.

Of course, there are exemptions so one can still fire up the grill and watch the fireworks after Shorebirds games. (If the ban is still in effect next month the July 4th fireworks will go on.)

It seems to me that Rick Pollitt has wised up on that account, since I recall a few years back that fireworks displays were part of the burn ban and the Shorebirds had to scrub a couple slated shows.

Speaking of which – the next resolution the county needs is to provide an exemption from the 11 p.m. curfew on fireworks. It seems like several times a season the Shorebirds manage to play their extra-inning marathons on fireworks nights and if an inning starts after about 10:40 the fireworks can’t go on. That’s ridiculous.

Now it’s time to go national. For all his faults, Newt Gingrich can sometimes get to the heart of the problem:

To make Washington smaller, we as citizens must become bigger.

We must persuade one person at a time, one family at a time, and one community at a time that we have better solutions than the corrupted, collectivist policies we’ve seen from Washington.

Because the renewal of America can only begin with you, this will be your campaign.

As someone who has been in public life for nearly forty years, I know full well the rigors of campaigning for public office. I will endure them. I will carry the message of American renewal to every part of this great land, whatever it takes.

Next Monday, I will take part in the first New Hampshire Republican primary debate.

The critical question of how we put Americans back to work will be asked of me and the other Republican candidates.

It is the most important question of this campaign.

For Newt, though, a close second in “critical” questions will be who’s going to run his effort. There’s a lot to like about Newt, but perhaps his time has passed him by. I’ll still be interested to hear what he has to say about issues but his intangibles are a definite minus.

Now we come to an interesting dichotomy. This was an e-mail I received from the Barack Obama campaign – I like to get these for laughs. (My editorial comments are in bold.)

We’ve been working on bringing new people (illegal aliens and others dependent on government) into the political process. That will be the story of our campaign from start to finish. (Aside from the billion dollars you plan on raising.)

But right now there’s a concerted effort being made in states from New Hampshire to North Carolina to Ohio to make sure fewer people (Democrats) vote in 2012.

Here’s how they’re doing it: In some crucial battleground states, more than 50 percent of ballots are cast as part of early voting, which makes voting an easier and more flexible process. In 2008, a third of voters nationwide cast their votes before Election Day. (Something tells me this includes absentee ballots, which have nothing to do with early voting.)

These voters tend to be working families and young people, and a whole lot of them voted for Barack Obama — in some states providing our margin of victory. (If they’re still working families, they’re lucky. The young aren’t generally among the working.)

So Republican-controlled legislatures are cutting the amount of time people have to vote early, restricting when and how organizations like ours can register new voters, and making the voting process itself more difficult by requiring new types of identification, which lower-income voters are less likely to have. (So we can’t commit fraud as easily. ACORN screwed the pooch for us.)

They’re doing this because they have cynically concluded that they do better when fewer people vote. (We do better when more informed people vote.)

That’s the opposite of the kind of politics we believe in, and of the kind of campaign we want to run. (Obama believes in raw power and eliminating the field before the vote is held. See Illinois.)

So when we talk about the work this campaign will do to bring new people into the political process — registering new voters, training new volunteers, building an organization — it’s not just the right thing to do. It’s absolutely urgent.

Help us protect the right to vote for all. (Whether they are legally entitled to or not doesn’t matter as long as they vote the correct way, right? That’s why you don’t work too hard to make sure military votes count.)

Personally, I’d love to see 100% of the informed voters turn out. While I think early voting is a crock and didn’t support the concept, the numbers last year proved that not all that many people in Maryland came out to vote early anyway. A state which has “shall-issue” absentee ballots for the asking doesn’t need early voting.

And it looks like voter ID is a losing issue for Obama. Here’s the other, more important half of the dichotomy:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 75% of Likely U.S. Voters believe voters should be required to show photo identification such as a driver’s license before being allowed to vote. Just 18% disagree and oppose such a requirement. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans support a photo ID requirement at the polls, as do 77% of voters not affiliated with either major party and 63% of Democrats. But then support for such a law is high across virtually all demographic groups.

Supporters of photo ID laws say they will prevent fraud at the polls; opponents insist the laws will discourage many including minorities and older Americans from voting.

By a 48% to 29% margin, voters think that letting ineligible people vote is a bigger problem than preventing legitimate voters from casting a ballot. (Emphasis mine.)

So how does that crow taste, Jim Messina?

Often I refer to the “nanny state” of Maryland, and a study released last week shows I’m pretty much right.

With a hat tip to my uncle Jay, I found out the Mercatus Center at George Mason University ranked all 50 states on a variety of issues related to personal freedom and civil liberties. (Or maybe he reminded me of something I forgot.)

While Maryland scores reasonably well in the category of fiscal freedom – surprisingly, we are 11th while Delaware is 43rd – once we get to regulatory policy the numbers are more of what most would expect: Delaware is 20th and Maryland 44th. Yet in the economic freedom ranking Maryland is again ahead of Delaware, but not by much (28th compared to 33rd.)

The scary part comes when authors William P. Ruger and Jason Sorens calculate the personal freedom index, where Maryland is indeed the ultimate nanny state as we rank dead last. Delaware’s not much better as they rank 44th.

So what states are the most free? South Dakota leads the pack in fiscal policy and economic freedom rankings, Indiana is the standardbearer in regulatory policy, and I was sort of amazed to discover Oregon was tops in personal freedom. Yet the overall winner was the state whose very motto of “Live Free or Die” would suggest they would be on top: New Hampshire. Delaware is 39th and Maryland 43rd.

I do have a few quibbles with the author’s recommendations for Maryland to improve its rankings, because their number one priority would be to legalize civil unions. I think that’s a little bit too radical of a position to make top priority as their number two and number three suggestions are sound regarding marijuana laws and occupational licensing. Their analysis of Maryland as a nanny state is otherwise very sound.

Finally, a personal note of sorts.

There was a blogger awhile back who believed so strongly in his Alexa ratings after a number of “record days” that he thought himself mainstream media. In truth, I haven’t had any “record days” lately because my years of experience tell me political blog readership tails off during the summer, only to rebound after Labor Day.

So I was pleasantly surprised to see that my rank among websites reached a new low for me last week (like golf, a lower score is better.) Yesterday my U.S. Alexa number declined to 61,383 while my world rank reached a new low of 357,454.

Of course, when I compare this to Pajamas Media (U.S. rank 1,402) or even local media outlets like the Daily Times (U.S. rank 22,686) or WBOC (U.S. rank 23,789) I harbor no delusions of grandeur.  (I am ahead of WMDT, though – their U.S. rank is 68,045. To me that’s sort of funny.)

But in the end I’m just a guy who writes and is blessed with a fairly solid readership. It’s the reason I write for Pajamas Media, because if I were a more obscure blogger no one would have read what I’d written and decided it was worth taking a chance on.

Unlike many in the writing field, I don’t have a journalism or English degree so I am essentially self-taught. God-given talent and years of practice and perfecting this craft got me to where I am insofar as ability goes, but it’s thanks to my readers that the word spread. It’s why I keep doing this day after day for not a lot of pay, because I enjoy putting together good things to read.

I have a lot of interesting items coming up over the next few weeks, so stay tuned. (No summer reruns here.)

A miracle in Maryland?

My latest for Pajamas Media…

Conservatives in Maryland rarely have something to cheer about. But things may slowly be changing, as efforts to recognize same-sex marriage and instill a ban on septic systems in large developments both died this spring once legislators realized they didn’t have the votes and the effort wouldn’t be worth the outcry from newly energized conservative stalwarts. The septic system ban was a particularly bitter pill for Governor Martin O’Malley to swallow as he made it the key new legislative initiative of his 2011 State of the State address.

Yet one controversial bill made it through by slim margins in both houses, with bipartisan opposition. Sponsored by a group of Maryland’s most liberal legislators, Senate Bill 167 allows illegal immigrants who graduated from the state’s schools to enjoy in-state tuition rates at the state’s community colleges. It is estimated the bill could cost state taxpayers upward of $3 million per year by 2016, although those who drew up the bill’s fiscal note conceded they couldn’t accurately gauge the impact.

(continued at Pajamas Media…)