WCRC meeting – January 2011

It’s a new year, but many of the same cast of characters met at the Salisbury Chamber of Commerce building to kick off the beginning of a new election cycle.

We first did the usual recitation of the Lord’s Prayer and Pledge of Allegiance, then went over minutes from both the October and November meetings. Following that was the Treasurer’s Report, although the treasury was increasing by the minute as members paid their 2011 dues.

Our speaker for the evening was County Council Vice-President Joe Holloway, who wanted to speak about the capital improvement budget but was prodded by questions and comments into a more general discussion. After being a skeptic about the concept when he first came into office, Joe now believes the recent MACo conference was “very informative.” A lot of interesting things were uttered there as well, said Joe. (I’m not at liberty to repeat them.)

Joe also told us that the latter half of 2010 was sparse as far as legislation went, but this year promised to be different. He cited a number of issues County Council may address: residential sprinklers for new single-family dwellings (which Joe was leaning against requiring,) speed cameras, which Joe stated had “a lot of work to do on them,” the prospect of an elected school board, the comprehensive plan, and the monetary issues of our operating and capital budgets.

The capital budget drew attention from the group as the prospect of taking $14 million in principal and interest from the operating budget usually does, particularly when the County Executive wants to borrow $16 million more. Also on the radar screen is the possible adoption of “special taxing districts” to replace revenue – as Joe said, “you can special tax district anything.” For example, a volunteer fire department could have the benefits of a special taxing district but would risk a loss in donations since it would be assumed the tax would cover all their expenses.

With the asking of a question regarding the wisdom of building the new Bennett Middle School now, the tenor of Holloway’s presentation changed. For him, that would be a “tough call” as he’d have to weigh the current low interest and construction costs vs. the declining revenues we’re receiving. (In fact, the newest batch of assessments are running about 25% lower than the last cycle three years ago.)

Another question regarding school construction which came up was the status of intersection improvements near the new Bennett High School, which was a case of the city perhaps not being ready for the school to be finished a year ahead of schedule. But the questioner called the situation there “a fatal accident waiting to happen.”

Yet a different quandary piqued the interest of a number of people – could the county do without the inventory tax? (This is also referred to as the personal property tax, and apparently we are the lone county in the state charging one.) Obviously the question would be that of how to replace the revenue gained, but quite honestly the onus would be on the County Executive to make do should that barrier be removed. (In the FY2011 budget, the total revenue from the personal property tax is estimated at about $9.7 million.) Meanwhile, Holloway brought up the fact that the county’s budget had increased by $34 million between 2002 and 2008 – they spent plenty during the boom times.

A question of a different sort awaited the group after Holloway finished – did any of them wish to step up and become club officers for 2011? Hearing no willing volunteers, it appears the slate will be as follows:

  • President: Larry Dodd
  • 1st VP: Dustin Mills
  • 2nd VP: Marc Kilmer
  • 3rd VP: Carl Kurten
  • 4th VP: Deb Okerblom
  • Secretary: Michael Swartz
  • Treasurer: Tom Hughes

Of the group, most are already officers. Larry Dodd starts at the top, with Kilmer taking my old spot as 2nd Vice-President. I’m stepping into Dave Parker’s longtime job as Secretary – if I do half as well as he, I would do a decent job. Dave will be a challenge to top.

The aforementioned Parker gave the Central Committee report, putting out the welcome mat for visitors. He went over our advocation of an elected school board, adventures at the Martin Luther King dinner, and the upcoming Lincoln Day Dinner where Congressman Andy Harris and state Party 3rd Vice-Chair Eric Grannon would be featured speakers.

Mark Biehl gave a short Lower Shore Young Republican report, a group where he’d turned leadership over to Shawn Jester. They were taking a bit of a hiatus after a busy election season, not meeting again until April 13. But they would do their annual canned food drive during the late spring.

“I’m having a ball.” Those were the words of newly appointed lower Eastern Shore liaison Mark McIver, so designated by Congressman Andy Harris. “We’ll really be strong on constituent services,” promised Mark, who also revealed that Harris will serve on three House committees: Natural Resources, Transportation and Infrastructure, and Space, Science, and Technology. (But I still want to know if Andy will be on both the Republican Study Committee and TEA Party Caucus.)

Greg Belcher made mention of an upcoming Senate TEA Party caucus event on Thursday, with an effort to carpool to the event from here. (I’ll have more on this tomorrow.)

Joe Collins announced the AFP would meet Wednesday, and they were looking for new leadership as he had to step aside for various reasons.

Upcoming speakers and guests were the subject of suggestions by both John Palmer and Cynthia Williams. Palmer suggested we hear from the County’s internal auditor, Steve Roser, while Williams believed that we should allow Salisbury City Council candidates to speak their piece. (I noted our next meeting was on the eve of the primary, though.)

That next meeting will be February 28, with our speaker scheduled to be County Councilwoman Stevie Prettyman.

Isn’t it a bit early for this?

Well, regardless of the fact the survivor of the process won’t know the final result for another 21 1/2 months, the polls have begun for the GOP nomination in 2012, with the winner most likely taking on President Obama that November.

Today Rasmussen released a poll which showed Mitt Romney has the early lead for the GOP nomination, with 24 percent replying they prefer Mitt at this nascent stage. Sarah Palin netted 19% while Mike Huckabee picked up 17 percent. The top contender who didn’t run in 2008, Newt Gingrich, had 11 percent while national newcomer Tim Pawlenty finished under the “undecided” (10%) with a 6% score. Ron Paul and Mitch Daniels rounded out the field.

One weakness in the Rasmussen Poll is that they somewhat arbitrarily picked the seven contenders, yet they point out that the leaders at this stage rarely end up with the nomination. As I recall, at this time four years ago we were supposed to have a rematch of the abortive 2000 New York Senate race between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. Hillary was the last person standing between Barack Obama and the 2008 Democratic nomination, but Rudy was an early casualty in the GOP race.

This is notable about the methodology, though:

The survey of 1,000 Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on January 18, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary.

In other words, they rely on an open primary of sorts. More tellingly:

Romney, Palin and Huckabee are essentially in a three-way tie among voters who describe themselves as very conservative. Those who characterize themselves as somewhat conservative and moderate/liberal have a clear preference for Romney.

Yet Palin has the lead among TEA Partiers, and there’s no real way of knowing just how much influence they’ll have over the GOP nominating process in states with both open and closed primaries.

New Hampshire is a state with an open primary, and a straw poll was conducted there over the weekend – 273 Granite State Republicans scattered their votes among a total of 20 candidates. It’s not particularly surprising that Mitt Romney won, but 35 percent isn’t all that overwhelming considering he comes from a neighboring state and is a name well-known to “establishment” Republicans. Ron Paul was a distant second with 11 percent.

However, if you look at the candidates who could be considered the “darlings” of the TEA Party (Paul, Palin, Michele Bachmann, Jim DeMint, Herman Cain, Mike Pence, and Gary Johnson) you get just as much support as Romney drew – they add up to 37 percent. Once the TEA Party can coalesce around one or two candiates, the race will be joined. 

It’s pretty amazing to think that only one of those mentioned (Herman Cain) has even taken the step to form an exploratory committee – the rest are still considering if and when to jump in. But surely over the next few months the final field will emerge, and it will be fun to see how the race shakes out.