Missing the event

Well, I have to apologize to “lwd”, whoever he or she is. I didn’t get the e-mail message in time yesterday to post on tonight’s candidate forum, nor could I make it myself. I did see that there was notice posted on the other three “major” blogs in town so I’m sure hundreds read it.

But I was surprised that there were no articles regarding the forum up yet on Salisbury News or even Delmarva Dealings (as of about 10:30.) The reason I would’ve liked to have seen something on either (or both) website(s) was to gather the attendance and mood of those present. To be honest though, my guess is that there were almost more candidates and hangers-on than general public. The Daily Times story cites “dozens” but that could be as few as two dozen. So I’ll figure about 60 folks and hope I’m quite low.

The larger point that I want to make is that I spent a little time upon my return home looking up the numbers from previous Salisbury elections. My supposition for this election is that about 2,200 voters will vote. I believe they get three votes apiece, which leaves a “pool” of about 6,600 votes. Thus getting 1,000 votes should be enough to make it into the general election field, but more often than not the contest is between the top four in a race that eventually is weeded down to three.

So who looks like the top six? It’s very hard to figure since there really hasn’t been all that much said about most candidates. Aside from incumbent Gary Comegys and Terry Cohen, who both seem to have decent financial backing and name recognition so they should easily advance, I think most of the other eight could finish anywhere from third to 10th. But I’d say the “bubble” candidates are Neil Bayne, Patrick Hannon, Keith Wright, and maybe John Harris. John Atkins, Don Ewalt, Louise Smith, and Tim Spies are probably the middle tier but turnout will be key for them, making sure their supporters make it out to the polls. If they can’t get people out for them, they could slide down to 7th or 8th and not advance.

A lot of decisions will be made based on a small number of factors, though:

• How the candidates come across in the media – in particular what is said about them in the Daily Times, their performance in Saturday’s televised debate, and to a lesser extent, their interviews with Bill Reddish on WICO and their coverage on the local blogs.
• How much actual door-to-door and face time campaigning they can get in.
• And how much assistance they get from loyal supporters in putting up yard signs, making sure people get to the polls to vote for them, etc. etc. Don’t be surprised if there’s not a push to vote for a single candidate (bullet vote) sprung up someplace along the line.
• Name recognition may help here. Obviously Gary Comegys has been on the ballot before, as has Neil Bayne in the recent past. I know Louise Smith has been on for GOP Central Committee, and I believe Patrick Hannon, Don Ewalt and Keith Harris have ran for some public office as well. It’s my recollection that the other four are first-time candidates.
• On the other hand, any gaffes made will hurt their cause, like the “blite” mailing debacle.

I do want to open up a little more as far as comments go regarding tonight’s performances, which is why I brought up the topic. Not knowing what the other blogs will do regarding their coverage, I did feel that it was important to post on the Salisbury Council race even though I have no say in the matter. So feel free to share your impressions if you were there!

Author: Michael

It's me from my laptop computer. View all posts by Michael