Posts on development

I’m going to bounce off a couple posts I read earlier today on Delmarva Dealings, one regarding the Northeast Collector extension and the other about the Discovery project slated north of Laurel, Delaware.

Putting aside the fact that the city of Salisbury, already in hock up to its eyebrows, plans on borrowing millions to complete the Northeast Collector, it occurred to me that the idea behind this road was to provide an alternate route to the mall. Cato brought up a good point, though – the road as planned would stop at the intersection of Kelly Road and East Gordy Road. As it stands now, the corner is a forlorn 90 degree curve in the road, which simply changes direction and name.

This got me to wondering if the proposed improvements also include:

  • widening the probably half-mile of Kelly Road that’s existing
  • reworking the current “T” intersection with Zion Road into what should be a curved intersection with Kelly Road/Northeast Collector given the right of way
  • widening the current Zion Road bridge over the U.S. 13/50 bypass

If these items aren’t done, the road pretty much becomes useless for its stated purpose. You would have a four-lane highway first dying into a two-lane road and then coming to a dead stop (or at least a turn if the light is green, I’m certain there’s going to be a traffic light installed there.)

Now, the purpose behind the road is an alternate route to the mall. I actually sat down with a map of Salisbury and mentally drove the two possible routes – one using Business Route 13 and the other the Northeast Collector. If my memory is correct, there are 13 traffic lights between the corner of College Avenue and the mall along Salisbury Boulevard.

Thinking of the College Avenue/Beaglin Park Drive corridor and that route, along with probable lights at Old Ocean City Road and at the Zion Road terminus, I come up with… 13 traffic lights. Traffic from the south and west would do roughly as well to stay along Route 13, while traffic from the east would probably use the bypass and exit directly in front of the mall.

So the reason for the road comes down to servicing the proposed Aydelotte Farms development. While the additional traffic could assist in developing the moribund Beaglin Park office development between Business Route 50 and Old Ocean City Road, the purpose of this highway seems a little redundant given the bypass that already exists.

Speaking of redundant developments, there’s certain parts of the proposed Discovery development which seem to be lacking in thought and some that could do a lot of good.

According to the news report, the development is slated for 1,400 residential units, 250 retail stores, sports fields, a water theme park, a 6,000 seat baseball stadium, and a 12,000 seat arena.

Starting with the residential units; one has to ask, given the slumping real estate market, whether throwing all these units into a market already suffering from a glut of available new housing will fly. I can personally vouch for at least one major housing development being placed on hold, I’m sure others are in the same boat. Obviously these units are planned on the mid-to-long term basis (maybe 3 years out before any significant number are built) but 1,400 units over 10 years is still a lot to work in. And of course, the age-old question: will people be able to afford them and work close by?

Moving on to the retail stores, Delaware (as most readers know) is a state with no sales tax. Obviously this gives them an advantage over adjacent Maryland businesses, particularly if incoming Governor O’Malley becomes compelled to raise the sales tax to pay for his cornucopia of new and expanded government programs. It would likely be about a 6% advantage over similar products in Maryland stores.

Here’s the rub though. With the closest large population base being in Maryland and a mall about 10 miles south of the site, it’s going to be tricky for a mall to secure stores that aren’t duplicating those already down Route 13 in Salisbury. Yes, there may be some cannabalism that occurs if someone like, say, a Best Buy decides to build a larger store in Laurel to supplant its Salisbury location, but most stores would prefer to stay where they are as traffic patterns still favor the location closer to Route 50, the other major highway in the area.

A lot of the buzz over the project deals with the outdoor aspects of it. While our part of the country has a more favorable three-season climate, the outdoor activities would still likely be limited to about eight months (March to November.) If the water park is outdoor, that has a even more limited shelf life, basically the tourist season from Memorial Day to Labor Day.

I also can’t see the logic of a 6,000 seat baseball stadium. We already have a 10,000 seat park for the Shorebirds, and while the idea of the Discovery park is more geared to youth tournaments and the like, where would 6,000 people come from? More importantly, where would they stay? The lodging capacity is just not there at present and it’s doubtful anywhere near the required number of motel rooms could be built nearby.

However, the one thing I’d love to see is a 12,000 seat arena. Maybe we’d get some decent concerts for once…the Civic Center isn’t drawing flies as far as I’m concerned. It would become another white elephant if the Discovery Arena is built because Wicomico County would be hard-pressed to find events for a building that already needs millions in upgrades just to stay current.

I did a little bit of research in the census figures for the area. I’m thinking that this facility would draw from an area that includes Kent and Sussex counties in Delaware and the counties along the lower and mid-shore in Maryland (Wicomico, Somerset, Worcester, Dorchester, Talbot, and Caroline.) Once you get to the edges of that area, commerce is more likely to flow to Baltimore or Wilmington.

According to 2005 census estimates, the total population of that area works out to 584,419. I was shocked when I figured that out but then again both Sussex and Kent counties are geographically huge. They contribute 320,516 to the total, although many on the northern end of Delaware’s Kent County would likely migrate to Wilmington for their needs.

One thing that was brought up was the amount of population over the age of 65. The national average is about 12%, but practically every county within this region exceeds that – Worcester County has an estimated 21.7% of their population above 65. Kent County, Delaware is lowest at 12%, but they will split their allegiance as it were. Overall, I calculated that 16.1% of the population in the affected area is 65 plus. Those in the “seasoned citizen” set have traits that would affect the success of the venture.

For one thing, they would likely not partake in using the outdoor facilities as they’re generally in poorer health. The other, more important thing came to me in talking to my mom over the weekend. She’s 66 and my dad is 71, and neither of them feels much up to driving anymore. My mom won’t drive on expressways and my dad worries about driving at night. She also told me that the trip north they’ll take this coming summer (from Florida) will likely be the last one they take by car because of these concerns about driving the distance safely. With the heavy traffic sure to be created by this megadevelopment, this is a factor that will discourage 1/6 of the population from using it.

To be sure, I’m not against the idea of development – my paycheck depends on it. But I’m not certain all of these factors were thought through, and abandoning a development halfway through when the unplanned factors become too much for a deal to remain profitable makes everyone look bad and leaves a number of problems in its wake. Quite possibly a scaled-down development with some of the features that are more certain to succeed is what’s called for in this case.

 

Author: Michael

It's me from my laptop computer.

3 thoughts on “Posts on development”

  1. I hope that you can come out to the council meeting tonight. Your analysis of the situation is thoughtful and its important for more people to take part in the local government process.

    By the way, how are you enjoying the state central committee?

  2. Unfortunately I can’t make the council meeting tonight as this is also the meeting night for the Wicomico County Republican Club. Not sure how much influence I have anyway since I’m now a citizen of the county and not the city itself.

    As far as the other comment, I’m going to do a post on my experiences with the state’s Central Committee insofar as I feel like I’m on campaign number 2 here. You’ll understand when I post about it, probably on Wednesday. But technically I’m not on the CC quite yet, I’m officially sworn in at this weekend’s state convention in Annapolis.

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